Monday Free Horse Racing Picks: Aqueduct Late Pick Four

Belmont Stakes
Belmont Stakes
February 15, 2021
Tuesday Free Horse Racing Picks: Fair Grounds Early Pick Four
February 16, 2021

Monday Free Horse Racing Picks: Aqueduct Late Pick Four

Free Horse Racing Picks

Free Horse Racing Picks

February 15, 2021

Free Horse Racing Picks at Aqueduct - Monday February 15

Andrew Champagne previews the late pick four at Aqueduct on Monday.

Monday is President’s Day, and with the holiday come several special cards on high-level circuits. Aqueduct is one of the tracks running a special program, and I think the late Pick Four has room for a surprisingly-high payout. I’ve got a $27 ticket that goes against several morning line favorites, and here’s how I’ll play it.

RACE #5: Right off the bat, I’m going against a runner that’s even-money on the morning line. #3 LA VICTORIA is by Tapit, out of top sprinter La Verdad, and sold for $800,000 at auction. However, I think it’s very curious that Todd Pletcher ships her up from Florida for her debut. Perhaps that’s to capitalize on the New York-bred condition, but at her likely price, I’ll try to beat her.

#4 HIP NUMBER ONE has shown ample early speed in each of her first three starts, and she put forth a career-best effort when third at 23-1 last time out. Perhaps she just didn’t like the mud two back, and if you toss that clunker, her form looks far better. Trevor McCarthy rides back, and I think she’ll be the one to catch.

#1 DRAMATIC TWIST and #2 SUMMER BREW are on my ticket as well. The former made a middle move in her debut last month before flattening out to run third behind a next-out winner, while the latter is another that may have hated off going and has run well against stakes foes in the past.

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RACE #6: We’ve got a field of eight set to go for this one. It’s an allowance that’s drawn several strong state-bred sprinters, and my top pick has drawn the rail in his first start for a new barn.

#1 BUSTIN TIMBERLAKE has run second in his last two starts, which both came at this route and condition. He may be better at Finger Lakes, where he recorded four wins last season, but his Beyer Speed Figures show a strong upward trajectory and Kendrick Carmouche will once again be aboard.

I’m also using #3 NINTH HOUR and #5 FLEET WARRIOR, both of whom may provide some value. Ninth Hour didn’t run badly in his first start off a very long layoff and returns to the state-bred ranks, and Fleet Warrior wasn’t far behind Bustin Timberlake last time out and may not need to improve a ton to turn the tables.

RACE #7: The President’s Day feature at Aqueduct is the Hollie Hughes for state-bred sprinters going six furlongs. I’m taking a stand against morning line choice #3 OUR LAST BUCK, who’s done his best running at distances further than this. If he wins, he’ll beat me doing it.

#2 BIG ENGINE intrigues me at a bit of a price. He’s done his best work at Aqueduct, where he’s won twice and finished second twice in four starts. He was second behind #1 TRIBECCA at this level two back, but given the change in location, I think there’s a big chance he comes running late to pick up the pieces.

In addition to Tribecca, I’ll also use #5 AMUNDSON. That one was even-money at this level at Saratoga, but stopped badly and hasn’t raced since. That effort was too bad to be true, and I think the outside draw will help him as well.

RACE #8: We’ll finish off the afternoon with a $25,000 claiming event. I’m going two-deep, and while I’m using the 2-1 morning line favorite, that runner isn’t my top choice.

#4 WARDENOFTHENORTH ran terribly last time out at Finger Lakes, and I have no problem drawing a line through that effort. This is his first time in for a tag since he graduated last summer at Belmont, and it certainly seems like this is the right level for him. If he’s ready to run off the bench, I think he’s the one to beat.

#1 THERISASTORMBREWIN makes sense. He found starter allowance company too tough last time, but ran a solid third against higher-priced claiming foes two back and has enough speed to use the rail to his advantage. He may very well go wire-to-wire, and if he does, I’ll cash my ticket.


R5: 1,2,4

R6: 1,3,5

R7: 1,2,5

R8: 1,4

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