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Monday Racing Picks: Best Bets For Delta Downs

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November 30, 2020

Free Horse Racing Picks at Delta Downs - Monday November 30

Top handicapper Andrew Champagne runs through the meet at Delta Downs on Monday

Race Of The Day - Race 6

It may take some getting used to, but Delta Downs kick-starts its new weekly routine Monday with a nine-race program. The Louisiana bullring opened last week, and in contrast to the night racing that has become their trademark, this meet will consist entirely of daytime cards.

Monday's slate is anchored by the Jean Lafitte Stakes for 2-year-olds, which also headlines the late Pick Four. I've got a $32 ticket, and I'm looking forward to diving in. Here's how I'll play it!

RACE #6: The sequence starts with a $5,000 claiming event for older fillies and mares, one that features a pretty heavy favorite. I'm using her, but I think there's at least one more you'll want to consider.

#2 D'WILD MUFFIN gets the most powerful barn change at Delta, as she was claimed by Karl Broberg last time out. She hasn't won in more than two years, but she's been racing against far better horses and boasts four in-the-money finishes in six local tries. Judging by the recent works, the barn switch appears to have woken her up, and I think she'll be formidable in this spot.

However, if the morning line holds up on #9 SHE SANG DIXIE, she'll be a very appealing price. Her last two races at Evangeline were pretty bad, but she's shown she likes running at Delta. She's 2-for-6 here and 1-for-10 everywhere else, and with the exception of the favorite, it's not like this field has any monsters for the level. Top local rider Diego Saenz sees fit to ride her once again, and I think she has the potential to knock out plenty of tickets.

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RACE #7: This is the Jean Lafitte, and the race named for the pirate has attracted a field of seven. Two of these juveniles ship in for trainer Saffie Joseph, and this is another situation where the favorite looks tough, but not unbeatable.

#4 AWESOME GERRY was 2-for-2 in Florida before finishing fourth in an ungraded stakes race on the Breeders' Cup undercard at Keeneland. There's no shame in that, and the recent work at Gulfstream Park suggests he's come out of that race in good form. If he takes to the bullring, he'll be a handful.

I'm also, though, going to use #2 PRIVET MOON, who ships in from Indiana for Brad Cox. He stepped forward to break his maiden in the slop last time out, and his pedigree suggests this quirky two-turn route will not be a problem. I don't think we'll get the 8-1 morning line, and I believe he'll be a major player in the Monday feature.

RACE #8: These last two races are tricky handicapping puzzles, to be sure. Here we have an optional claiming event where several runners shipping in from out of town will be bet pretty heavily.

It's safe to assume #7 TAPIZARS SECRET has had his issues. He's run just twice this season, but when he's right, he's a tough customer. He hasn't finished worse than third in his last seven starts, and he's hit the board three times in as many races over this surface. He seems like the speed of the speed in this event, and it also helps that he beat this race's likely favorite on the square earlier in 2020.

That one, #2 IMPACT PLAYER, is also on my ticket, as are #4 HALFMOON REEF and #9 WILD BERT. Wild Bert is 20-1 on the morning line, but has hit the board nine times in 13 tries at Delta and should be running well late. If there's a major speed duel, he could stand to benefit at a price.

Finally, in the event of a scratch elsewhere in the sequence, I'll recommend the inclusion of #8 SANTIAMEN, who makes his local debut off a long layoff but has tackled far classier foes in Florida for most of his career. I'm trying to keep the cost of this ticket down, and the layoff scares me, but if changes allow for me to throw him in without overextending myself, I'll do that.

RACE #9: The 12 runners in this race (10 in the main body of the field, plus two also-eligibles) have combined to go 0-for-83. Even more alarming, those starts have produced a total of just 23 in-the-money finishes.

This is to be expected in maiden claimers, but those stats highlight how difficult this race is to handicap. I landed on #10 LOUISIANA SPECIAL as a reluctant top pick. She's 0-for-13, but has seven of those 23 top-three efforts and was claimed last time out by Broberg. She picked up four checks in five starts here a season ago, and the outside draw should give jockey Tim Thornton plenty of options.

I'll also use #2 SUPER LEGS and #6 FRESH SNUFF, who both haven't run since July but wouldn't shock me if they graduated here. Finally, #12 CIRCLEOFCOLOR needs some luck to draw in, but if he does, she'll be on my ticket. This is a far cry from tackling maidens at Santa Anita and Del Mar, and the recent bullet workout inspires some confidence.

THE TICKET

R6: 2,9

R7: 2,4

R8: 2,4,7,9 (use 8 if there is a scratch elsewhere in the sequence)

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