January 7, 2021

Free Horse Racing Picks at Aqueduct - Thursday January 7

Andrew Champagne previews the late pick four at Aqueduct on Thursday.

It’s time to bundle up, as we’re headed to New York for Thursday’s late Pick Four at Aqueduct. It’s a tricky sequence that begins in the fifth race on the eight-race program, and I’ll attack it with a $24 ticket. Here’s a closer look!

RACE #5: We’ll kick things of with a maiden race for 3-year-old sprinters. The morning line man sees this as a two-horse race, and I’m using both of those runners, but there’s a bigger price I couldn’t leave out.

#1 KID CASH and #3 SUBSIDIZE figure to take most of the money, and for good reason. The former comes back to the right spot after struggling in a turf sprint against winners, while the latter has improved in all three prior starts for world-class trainer Chad Brown.

In addition to those two, though, I’ll also throw in #4 Z’DEVIL, a first-time starter with a few very strong recent works. His most recent half-mile drill was excellent, as he went :47 2/5 over the Belmont training track as the sixth-fastest of 157 workouts at the distance that day. Anthony Dutrow’s runners tend to need a race to get going, but I can’t go forward without using him. If he’s a runner, wins at a decent price, and knocks me out, it’ll take a while to get over.

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RACE #6: We’ve got a field of eight set to go postward for this starter allowance race. I thought this race was pretty complex, and I’m using half of the runners that will line up.

#3 MAKE OR BREAK is my tepid top pick. She’s run very well over this one-turn mile route, and one of those efforts was a good second last time out. She was claimed by Mertkan Kantarmaci that day, and he’s excellent with new acquisitions. I think she’ll get a pace to run at, and that this likely race shape will make this closer very dangerous.

I’m also using #2 CHAYSENBRYN, #5 AMOS, and #8 BIG BENNYS TRIBUTE. Your guess is as good as mine with regard to which of these runners will go favored, but it certainly seems like I’m using the runners that will get bet. If I get knocked out, chances are I’ll be far from alone.

RACE #7: My single comes in this event, an optional claimer that looks far more like an ungraded stakes race. This field is short on quantity, with just six runners, but it’s high on quality, and I think the likely favorite is legitimate.

#5 LOOKING AT BIKINIS has run up against several strong fields since returning to the races this past fall. It may appear that this is a similar spot, but he’s actually getting significant class relief, and this may be the least-imposing field he’s seen since his 3-year-old year. I think he’ll sit an ideal stalking trip, and that he’ll be a handful late for both pace-setters and closers alike.

RACE #8: Singling in the third leg allows me to spread in the Thursday finale. This is a good thing, because this race hit me as the most wide-open of the entire sequence.

I’m going four-deep, and I’m against likely favorite #10 BREES BAYOU. Yes, he looked good rallying from last to first last time out, but he did so in the slop against a very suspect group. This is his first start against winners for a barn that’s just 1-for-20 on the meet, and I think he’s vulnerable.

#4 DAVID’S GEM intrigues me at a bit of a price. He ran well twice in three starts a season ago, and he almost certainly needed his lone race since February, when he was a distant sixth over a far different surface at Parx. This is a far weaker group than the one he faced that day, and he faces them over a track he’s shown to like.

#2 BLUES CITY, #5 HEALY’S HOPE, and #8 MACHO BOY are on my ticket as well. In addition to being against the favorite, I’m also against both #6 SHANDIAN and #7 NUMBER ONE DILLON, the second and third choices on the morning line. They’re a combined 0-for-8 at Aqueduct with just a single third-place finish between them. If the betting follows the morning line, I think there’s real value to be had here, and I’ll be pretty happy if that scenario comes to pass.

THE TICKET

R5: 1,3,4

R6: 2,3,5,8

R7: 5

R8: 2,4,5,8